摘要
这份报纸在城市的中国随着时间的过去检验护理开销的单个金融风险，用 Kunshan 城市里的从 2005 ～ 2007 的纵的健康开销数据，江苏省，中国。我们发现木头总数护理开销的随机的过程被一个 AR (3 ) 过程和一个白噪音过程的和很好代表。模仿这个模型，我们发现城市的健康保险系统由忍受护理开销的多数保护 enrollees 免受灾难的护理开销的风险的伤害。然而，现款支付的护理开销代表可观的风险到一个人们金融地位。
This paper examines the individual financial risk of health care expenditures over time in urban China, .using longitudinal health expenditure data from 2005 to 2007 in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, China. We find that the stochastic process of log total health care expenditures is well represented by the sum of an AR（3） process and white noise process. Simulating this model, we find that the urban health insurance system protects enrollees from the risk of catastrophic health care expenditures by bearing the majority of the health care expenditures. However, out-of-pocket health care expenditures represents a considerable risk to an individual＇s financial status.
