基于CI指数的河北省干旱特征分析及R/S分析

Analysis of Drought Characteristics of Hebei Province and R / S Based on the CI Index

采用《气象干旱等级》国家标准中推荐使用的CI指数,分析了河北省38年来干旱变化情况、各月干旱指数的年变化过程,并采用R/S分析法预测了河北省各月干旱指数未来的变化趋势.结果表明,河北省干旱发生频率相对较高,但时空分布不均匀,1970 ～ 2007年河北省几乎每年均有不同程度的季节干旱发生,春季和冬季干旱较为严重,秋季次之,夏季干旱程度最轻;38年的各月不同干旱指数变化趋势均不显著,但有一定的季节性特征;38年各月不同干旱指数呈现不同的Hurst现象,也有一定的季节性特征.

This article selected CI index recommended by Meteorological Drought Level, drought changes, the annual change of each month drought index in recent 38 years in Hebei Province were analyzed, the variation trend of each month drought index was predicted by using R/S a- nalysis method. The results showed that drought occurs relatively frequent in Hebei Province, but the distribution is uneven. From 1970 to 2007, different degree of seasonal drought nearly occurs in every year, winter and spring drought is severe, autumn drought is the second and summer drought is the lightest. Each month different drought index trends are not significant in recent 38 years, but there is a certain seasonal character- istics; Each month different drought index presents a different Hurst phenomenon, there are certain seasonal characteristics in recent 38 years.