云南省快速城镇化进程中耕地资源与粮食安全预警研究

Research on Early-warning of Cultivated Land Resources and Food Security in the Course of Rapid Urbanization in Yunnan Province

耕地资源和粮食安全状况关系到区域的经济发展和社会稳定,是人类生存发展的物质基础.该研究在明确城镇化、耕地资源与粮食安全的内在关联的基础上,基于P-S-R模型构建预警指标体系,运用熵值法对各项指标进行测算得到警度判定值,以对云南省17年以来耕地资源和粮食安全的发展演变态势进行综合评价,并对云南省1996～ 2012年的耕地资源与粮食安全指标总价值进行三次曲线拟合,通过系数分析云南省耕地资源与粮食安全的发展现状及趋势,最后分析结论并提出相应的对策.

Cultivated land resources and food security which have been related to regional economic development and social stability is the mate- rial base for existence and development of mankind. With the clear of understanding of the internal connection among urbanization, cultivated land resources and food security, early - warning index system has been built based on the P - S - R model and calculating every index to get a- lert degree determination value by means of entropy, which is to evaluate comprehensively the two development situation since 17 years before in Yunnan Province. Through three curve - fittings of cultivated land resources and food security general index value, this paper discusses the devel- opment and trend of cultivated land resources and food security of Yunnan Province by coefficients and puts forward corresponding countermeas-ures.