基于循环组合模型的洞庭湖流域水资源短缺风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Water Resources Shortage in Dongtinghu Basin Using Iteration-combination Model

以洞庭湖流域14个主要城市为例,采用循环组合模型评价了各城市水资源短缺风险,通过分析各城市水资源短缺特征,建立了风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法、主成分分析法和熵值法计算各评价指标的权重,用风险度对水资源短缺风险进行单一评价,采用Kendall和谐系数法检验几种评价方法的一致性,利用平均值法、Boarda法及Compeland法3种组合评价法对单一评价结果进行组合评价,最后按3种组合评价法循环组合得到最终的评价结果。结果表明,洞庭湖流域虽然水量充足,但存在中低水平的水资源短缺风险,评价结果与现实状况一致,可见该模型有较强适用性。

14cities in Dongtinghu Basin were taken as the research object,water resources shortage risk was evaluated by using iteration-combination model.Evaluation indexes system was established by analyzing water resources shortage characteristics.Weights of indexes were obtained by using entropy method,principal component analysis method and analytic hierarchy process method,as well as single evaluation on water resources shortage risk.Then consistency of these methods was tested using Kendall test method.The single evaluation results were combined by average value method,Boarda method and Compeland method.According to iteration-combination,scientific result was obtained.It shows that water resources shortage risk is low although water resources in Dongtinghu Basin are rich;the evaluation result is consistent with the actual status.Thus,the model has stronger applicability.