基于不确定性分析的工业需水概率预测模型在南通市工业需水预测中的应用

Industrial Water Demand Probability Prediction Model Based on Uncertainty Analysis and Its Application to Nantong City

由于影响工业需水的因素复杂多变,且模型预测中存在较大的不确定性问题,为掌握需水预测结果的有效范围与可靠度,针对南通市工业结构特点,通过南通市历史用水的分析,选择高耗水行业比重、火（核）电行业比重及工业用水重复利用率作为影响因子,基于南通市2001-2009年的工业用水量及各影响因子数据,结合普适似然不确定估计方法（GLUE）,建立了基于不确定分析的工业需水概率预测模型,预测了南通市2020年的工业需水量。结果表明,南通市工业需水量在2020年将会达到18.48×10^8 m^3左右,与南通市水资源规划上的工业用水变化趋势一致。

Due to the complex of impact factors for industrial water demand and the uncertainty in model prediction,a probability forecast model of industrial water demand is established based on the characteristics of industrial water in Nantong City and the GLUE uncertainty analysis method to master effective range and reliability of water demand.Depending on the analysis of the historical water,the model selected the proportion of high water consumption industries,the proportion of fire（nuclear）power industry,and the industrial water reuse coefficient as factors.According to the industrial water consumption data and the industrial impact factors from 2001 to 2009,this paper predicts the industrial water demand in 2020.The results show that the industrial water demand in 2020 will reach about 18.48×10^8 m^3,and it is consistent with the trends of the water demand in water resources planning.