2009年至2013年我国法定病毒性肝炎的灰色关联分析

Grey Relational Analysis of Incidence of Legal Virus Hepatities in China,2009 to 2013

目的了解2009年至2013年全国法定病毒性肝炎的发病率情况,科学评价病毒性肝炎中占主导作用的肝炎类型,为肝炎预防与控制的科学决策提供参考依据。方法应用灰色关联分析探讨2009年至2013年期间各肝炎类型与总病毒性肝炎之间的关联度,研究影响法定病毒性肝炎总发病率的主要类型。结果在2009年至2013年期间,乙肝发病率曲线与病毒性肝炎总发病率曲线的发展态势最接近,关联度值为0.91;其次是未分型肝炎,关联度值为0.87。结论乙肝发病数决定病毒性肝炎总发病数,是其预防与控制的重点,同时,在实际中,以发病率指标的控制决策基础上建议引入灰色关联分析进行系统分析。

Objective To get message of the incidence rate of legal virus hepatities in China from 2009 to 2013, and scientific evaluate the main hepatities type in legal virus hepatities in the paper, and provide scientific evidence for scientific decision of prevention and control of the hepatities. Methods The relation between each hepatities type and total legal virus hepatities was explore by gray relational analysis in China from 2009 to 2013, and investigated the mian effect type about total incidence of legal virus hepatities. Results From 2009 to 2013, the status of the second hepatities incidence curves is the most similar to that of total incidence of total incidence of legal virus hepatities, and relational value is 0.91, secondly, undifferentiated hepatities is minor, and relational value is 0.87. Conclusion Total incidence of incidence of legal virus hepatities depends on the incidence of second hepatities, and focal point of prevention and control of the hepatities, meantime, in real, gray relational analyse to systematic analysis is suggested on the basis of the controled decision by index of incidence rate.