基于灰理论的电离层foF2短期预报方法

Method for Short-term Forecasting of the Ionospheric foF2 Based on Grey Theory

将灰理论应用于电离层fo F2的短期预报中,基于灰色距离信息熵确定样本序列最佳灰色预报长度,构建基于残差修正的预报模型,并利用中国地区多个观测站的观测数据进行检验。研究表明,平均灰色距离信息熵的计算结果反映了太阳自转的周期性影响;高纬度地区预报方法的精度高于低纬度地区,且在太阳活动较为剧烈的季节,预报方法的误差相对较大;提前1天预报结果的平均相对残差在1MHz以内,平均精度在90%以上。为今后电离层短期预报提供一种新的思路。

The gray theory is applied to the ionospheric foF2 short-term forecast, grey range informationentropy is defined to determine the optimum grey forecasting length of the sample sequence, theforecasting model based on residual error correction is constructed, and the observation data of multipleionospheric observation stations in China are adopted for test. The result shows that the average greyrange information entropy calculation results reflect the cyclical effects of solar rotation; precision of theforecasting method in high latitudes is higher than low latitudes, and its error is large relatively in moreintense solar activity season; the effect of forecasting 1 day in advance of average relative residuals lessthan 1MHz, the average precision more than 90%. Provide a new way of thinking for the ionospheric foF2short-term forecast in the future.