ECMWF细网格模式2m温度在新疆及周边地区的预报效果检验

Prediction Effect Test of ECMWF Fine Grid Model for 2 Meters Temperature in Xinjiang and Its Surrounding Areas

对2013年1-12 月ECMWF细网格模式2 m 温度在新疆及周边地区的预报效果进行了统计检验.结果表明：ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度预报为系统性偏高,预报效果随预报时效的延长而逐渐变差.72 h内温度预报的绝对误差小、预报准确率高,对实际温度预报有很好的指导作用;96-168 h 温度预报的绝对误差较小,预报准确率较高,对实际温度预报具有参考价值;192-240 h 温度预报的绝对误差大、预报准确率低,对实际温度预报参考价值不大.温度预报精度在蒙古国西部最低,北疆盆地次之,南疆盆地最高.

The forecast result of ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature from January to December2013 in Xinjiang and its surrounding areas was evaluated. The result showed that ECMWF fine gridfor 2 m temperature forecast was systematically lower, and the effect became worse with the increaseof forecast period. Compared with the statistical tests of the absolute errors for temperature forecastin 72 h, 96-168 h and 192-240 h, the absolute errors and precision of forecast within 72 hourswhich have a certain reference value for actual temperature forecast outperform the other twoleading time, followed by the forecasting precision within 96-168 h, and result for 192-240 hforecasting was left behind among the three predicted time. In addition, the accuracy of temperatureprediction showed that the ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature was best in southern Xinjiangbasin, northern Xinjiang basin for the second place, and the lowest in western Mongolia.