中国石油进口需求是刚性的吗?——基于VAR模型的实证检验

Is Oil Import Demand in China Rigid: Empirical Test by VAR Model

随着国际油价的不断上涨,中国石油的进口量不仅没有下降,反而继续增加,说明中国石油的进口需求可能是刚性的。在对需求刚性概念进行界定的基础上,选取2006年1月到2012年12月中国的石油进口量、国内生产总值、国际石油价格等数据,建立VAR模型对中国石油进口需求的方程进行估计。实证检验结果表明,中国石油进口需求收入弹性大于需求价格弹性,中国石油进口需求的确是刚性的,需要制定降低中国石油需求刚性的相关政策。

With the rise of international oil price , China’s oil imports didn’t fall, instead, it rose.Considering this phenomenon , the paper argues that China’s oil demand maybe is rigid .The paper selects the data from January 2006 to December 2012 to build VAR model with variables being China’s oil imports, international oil price , China’s GDP.Based on cointegration test , oil import demand e-quation is estimated bu using the VAR model .The test results show that the price elasticity of demand is grater than income elasticity of demand, and namely, China’s oil demand is rigid.So, the paper proposes the appropriate recommendations .