中国天然气供应安全评价及对策

Research on Evaluation and Countermeasures of Natural Gas Supply Security in China

目前中国正处于天然气高速发展阶段,天然气的稳定、可持续供应显得尤为重要。为了评价中国的天然气供应安全水平,分别以供需安全和市场安全2个维度、9个关键因素作为评价指标,以2006—2013年的数据为样本,采用主成分分析法进行评价。结果表明,中国天然气供应安全可以划分为三个阶段:第一阶段为2006—2008年,天然气供应较为稳定阶段;第二阶段为2009—2011年,天然气供应安全度明显下滑、供需失衡加剧阶段;第三阶段为2012—2013年,天然气供应安全度平稳下降、开始进行调整的阶段。随着天然气需求的增加,天然气供应安全将面临更大挑战。中国应采取更多的措施以确保天然气供应安全。

At present, China is in a stage of rapid development of natural gas and the stable and sustainable supply of nature gas is par -ticularly important .In order to evaluate the grade of China’natural gas supply security , we chose nine key indicators from the two di-mensions of supply , demand and market .2006 to 2013 data samples were evaluated through using principal component analysis .The results show that China’s natural gas supply security can be divided into three phases , the first phase of 2006-2008 , more stable supply of natural gas;second phase of 2009-2011 , supply and demand imbalances due to gas supply safety degree decline significantly ;third stage for 2012-2013 , gas supply security smoothly down , began to enter the stage of adjustment .With increasing demand for natural gas, natural gas supply security will face even greater challenges .China should take more measures to ensure the security of natural gas supply .