能源约束下产业结构调整对我国非农就业的影响-基于投入占用产出技术

THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING ON OFF-FARM EMPLOYMENT WITH THE RESTRICTION OF ENERGY-BASED ON INPUT-OUTPUT TECHNOLOGY

当前,我国经济发展面临着能源约束及结构调整的双重压力,如何在双重压力下实现就业稳定增长是经济可持续发展进程中急需解决的问题.文章提出了将能源消费,就业占用以及经济发展融为一体的非竞争型能源就业投入占用产出模型,利用此模型测算了我国2007年能源约束条件下产业结构调整对非农就业及不同技术等级就业者的影响.结果显示,低能耗部门增加值的提高将会使得非农就业出现不同程度增加,但是限于低能耗部门高技术等级就业人员比例偏低,故对高级技师,技师等高技术等级就业人员会有负面影响.

Energy scarcity and industrial structure of adjustment are major problems in China＇s current economic development.Under pressure on both fronts,ensuring employment,or even expanding employment becomes an urgent problem of sustainable development.This paper proposed the new model called energy-employment input-occupation-output model of non-competitive imports type.This model uses the chessboard balance table to reflect the energy consumption,employment occupation and economic development of every national economy departments.Using this model,we calculate the impact of industrial restructuring on off-farm employment with the restriction of energy in 2007.The results show that raising the proportion of value added of departments which consume less energy would increase off-farm employment in varying degrees,but workers who have technical titles such as senior technicians and technicians would be negatively affected.