计及台风过境的风电场功率预测研究

Prediction of Wind Power Containing Typhoon Influence

稳定的大面积来风是风电场稳定运行的驱动力,而台风等强风过境时反而容易导致风机的损坏,对风电场的设备及调度产生巨大的负面影响。所以在台风过境时,有效的预测其风速强度从而做出适当的提前应对便显得尤为关键。本次的研究工作基于空间相关性和BP及RBF等神经网络模型,对台风过境时的风电功率的预测进行了研究,并以Matlab软件进行模拟仿真。

Stable large wind is the driving force for the stable operation of wind farms, while typhoons and other strong winds may also cause damage in wind turbines together with a huge negative impact on wind farm equipment and scheduling.So when typhoon arrives,effective prediction of the wind strength in order to make an appropriate in response to it is particularly critical. The research work mainly base on the spatial correlation and several neural network models such as BP and RBF. Then take a research of wind power forecasting containing typhoon influence, and use Matlab software to realize the simulation.