北京市不同区县房价与地价关系研究:以海淀区、朝阳区和通州区为例

Analysis of House Price and Land Price Relationships in Beijing's Different Counties and Districts:Taking Haidian District,Chaoyang District and Tongzhou District as examples

采用Granger因果检验法及文献资料法,对北京市三个区县房价地价关系进行分析,为房地产市场"分类调控"战略提供参考.研究发现:房价对地价关系上,海淀区、朝阳区和通州区房价增长均推动地价增长,但房价对地价的作用程度表现为海淀区大于朝阳区,朝阳区大于通州区;地价对房价关系上,通州区地价是房价的格兰杰原因,海淀和朝阳的地价均不明显作用于房价.基于对区域间差异的分析,海淀区应合理增加土地供应,朝阳区应尽量保持现有土地供应量,两区县均应调整住房供应结构,建设更多保障房和廉租房;而通州区应抑制区域房价持续增长的预期,杜绝投资投机性需求.

By using Granger causality test and relevant literatures, analysis of the house price and land price relationship was carried out for 3 districts in Beijing which provides a reference for the “Classification Regulation” in the management of real estate marketing. As for the house-land price relationship, our results show that steady increase in house price accommodates increase in land price in areas including Haidian, Chaoyang and Tongzhou. The degree house price to land price relationship for that of Haidian district is greater over Chaoyang district and Tongzhou subsequently, but the land price to house price relationship indicates that Tongzhou district is the Granger cause in which the land price does not act upon house price, and this includes areas in Haidian and Chaoyang. Based on the geographical discrepancy, Haidian district should increase land supply at appropriate level, Chaoyang district should keep at its current supply level, and the two districts should make adjustments to the structure of their housing supply levels by building more low-income houses as well as cheaper houses; on the other hand, sustained increase in house price should be suppressed in Tongzhou district, as well as any investment or speculative opportunities.