中国西汉—清代饥荒序列的重建及特征分析

The reconstruction and analysis of famine sequence form the Western Han to the Qing Dynasty(206BC～1911AD)

粮食安全作为一个全球性话题，长期受到国内外学者的广泛关注，而“饥荒”属于粮食不安全的极端情况，受到自然因素和社会经济因素的综合影响。以史为鉴，重建中国古代饥荒序列，可为进一步分析饥荒的成因、影响等提供基础数据，为解决当前的粮食问题提供借鉴。本文以《中国历代自然灾害及历代盛世农业政策资料》为主要数据源，《中国灾害通史》辅之，重建中国西汉至清代的饥荒年数、次数、综合指数序列，并分析其特征。主要结论如下：（1）不论是发生年数还是次数，饥荒的时间序列没有显著的周期性，呈一定的波动趋势；（2）从饥荒综合指数序列看，存在6个饥荒相对多发的阶段，其中460～520AD、660～710AD、1420～1560AD饥荒影响范围大、发生时段集中，1160～1230AD、1640～1850AD饥荒频发但区域集中，而1260～1360AD饥荒频发且区域广布，各阶段饥荒的频率、强度特征不同；（3）饥荒本身并非一种自然现象，而是天灾人祸并行的结果，在有原因说明的记载中，旱灾、水灾、蝗灾、疫灾、赋税等都会引起饥荒。

As a global topic, food safety has caused widespread concern of scholars all over the world. Famine belongs to the food insecurity, and it is affected by natural and socioeconomic factors. Taking history as a reference, the reconstruction sequences of famine in ancient China can provide the basis data and a reference for the analysis of current food problem. Conclusion are as follows： （1） Famine series was not significant, it showed a trend of certain fluctuations. （2） There are six high-- incidence stage of famine from the Western Han dynasty to the Qing dynasty, and characteristics of each stage are different. It can be divided into 3 classes： large extent--time focus, such as 460 520AD, 660~710AD and 1420~1560AD, focus extent--time focus, such as 1160~1230AD and 1640 -1850AD, and large extent--long time, such as 1260~1360AD （3） Famine is not a natural phenom- enon,only it is the result of natural and man--made factor, such as the drought disaster, flood, locust plague, epidemic diseases and taxes.