近10年中国现代天气预报的发展与应用

The development and application of the modern weather forecast in China for the recent 10 years

近10年来,随着数值预报技术的进步,探测手段的日臻完善和丰富,以及高性能计算机快速发展和应用,现代天气预报技术取得了显著的进步,其中快速更新同化分析和预报、集合预报、概率预报以及数字化预报等新技术的应用,促进了中国天气预报业务水平的提高,在中国防灾减灾、保障社会经济发展和人民安康福祉的气象服务中发挥了重要作用。回顾和介绍了近10年中国现代天气预报新技术,主要包括基于中尺度模式的多源资料快速更新同化预报技术,提供灾害性、极端性天气预报的不确定性信息的集合预报和概率预报技术及高时空分辨率气象要素的数字化预报技术,展望未来发展趋势,以期能够对未来天气预报技术发展提供借鉴和参考。

The modern weather forecast technology in China has made significant progresses due to the development of the theory of atmospheric science,numerical prediction technology,increasingly rich detection means,the application of high performance computer and digital forecast technique in the recent 10 years.On the other hand,it also promoted the forecast service level and ability in China owing to the application of the rapid update cycle assimilation/forecast,ensemble prediction technique, probability forecast and digital forecast tools in the weather forecast.It has played a significant role in meteorological service in meeting the needs of the national disaster prevention and mitigation and safeguarding social economic development and people＆#39;s life and property.This paper summarized the new technology of modern weather forecast developed by China Meteorological Administration in the recent 10 years,including the technique of the rapid multiˉsource data update cycle assimilation/forecast based on mesoscale numerical model,ensemble prediction and probabilistic forecast for the uncertainty in extreme and severe weather,as well as the digital forecast tools for the high resolution meteorological elements,and look forward to its future development trend.This would benefit to provide reference to the weather forecast technology developer and decisionmaker.