基于偏离—份额分析法的新疆农业产业结构分析

Analysis of agricultural economy industry structure based on Shift—Share Method in Xinjiang Province

采用偏离—份额分析法,结合新疆农业产业的种植业、林业、牧业、渔业4部门对新疆农业进行全面分析。结果表明:新疆种植业发展迅速,占新疆农业产业结构比例最重,而且相对全国而言是竞争力最好的部门,其次是牧业和林业,最差部门是渔业。鉴于种植业在新疆农业中的重要地位,该文对种植业进行亚产业偏离—份额分析,结果表明:粮食产业、果用瓜产业是原有基础很好,竞争力较强的好部门,其次是油料产业和蔬菜产业;棉花产业是基础差但发展快的较好部门;薯类产业和甜菜产业基础较好,但却是地位下降的一般部门。最后,对新疆农业发展提出几点建议。

Using Shift-Share analysis method, Xinjiang agricultural comprehensive analysis combining Xin- jiang agricultural crop cultivation, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries departments was conducted. The results showed that the rapid development of plantation in Xinjiang, the most proportion of Xinjiang agricultural industry structure, and it is the best department is relative to the national competitiveness, followed by the animal husbandry and forestry, the worst is fisheries department. In view of the planting industry in the important position of agriculture in Xinjiang, analyzed the industry deviates from the share of the crop, results showed that the food industry, fruit with melon industry is the original foundation is very good, good competitive sector, followed by the oil industry and vegetables industry; cotton industry is a foundation is poor but better fast development department; potato industry and sugar beet industry foundation is good, but the decline of general department. Finally, put forward several suggestions for ag- ricultural development in Xinjiang.