贝叶斯决策在规模养殖风险分析中的应用

Application of Bayesian Decision to Risk Analysis for Scale Breeding

随着经济的发展和消费者需求的增加,养殖业从传统的养殖模式逐步过渡到现代的规模养殖。养殖业技术不断进步,养殖规模不断壮大,这给养殖业的投资者带来了发展的机遇,但是同样也带来了一定的风险,怎么使得养殖企业的风险最小是当今研究的一个重点。文章首先对养殖业的风险类型以及产生的原因进行研究,然后提出规模养殖的贝叶斯决策模型,阐述模型的建立和运用过程,利用贝叶斯理论对于规模养殖存在的风险进行定性和定量的分析,进而运用一个决策案例来阐述贝叶斯模型决策的过程。案例的结果表明贝叶斯决策模型可以很好地解决决策风险问题,对于是否需要获取补充信息也做出了明确的判断,同时对于预测情形下的各种方案也做出了风险计算,从而直观地反映决策方案是否符合风险最小,收益最大原则。文中案例是规模养殖业决策风险中的一个问题,类似风险决策问题可以根据决策模型来解决。文章最后对各种风险问题提出决策建议,以期为养殖业的风险决策提供一个有效的方法。

With the development of economy and the increase of consumer demand, the breeding from traditional farming mode gradually transition to the modem scale breeding. With the advances in breeding technology and the growing of breeding scale, investors are faced with aquaculture development opportunities. But risks are always along with opportunities. How to make the breeding enterprise risk minimum is one of the focuses of current research. At first, the article studied about the risk type and the reason of scale breeding. And then put forward the Bayesian decision model of scale cultivation, established this model and using process, made a use of Bayesian theory for the risks of scale cultivation of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and then used a case to illustrate the Bayesian decision model of the decision- making process. The results of case study showed that the Bayesian decision model was a good way to solve the problem of risk decision. The investors could make a clear judgment that whether they need to obtain complementary information. And solutions for predicting situation had made the risk calculation, plan was in line with the principle aquaculture decision-making risk, of minimum risk and profit which directly reflects the decision-making maximum. The case was a problem of scale a similar risk decision-making problem could be solved according to the decision model. Finally the article put forward policy recommendations of various risk problem to provide an effective way for the breeding of risk decision.