基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的上海蔬菜产量预测研究

Research on Shanghai Vegetable Yield Forecasting Based on Grey Mode GM(1,1)

随着社会经济发展和居民生活习惯的改变,蔬菜的多样化需求对蔬菜产业提出了全新的发展要求,蔬菜供给安全逐渐成为影响食品安全和社会经济发展的重要因素。上海都市型蔬菜产业的发展经验,具有重要的社会和经济启示意义。基于2000—2012年上海市蔬菜生产产量数据,采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对上海未来2013—2017年的蔬菜生产量进行了预测分析。通过对预测模型的精度检验,显示GM(1,1)预测模型精度良好,研究结果显示上海2013—2017年蔬菜生产总量呈不断下降趋势。政府相关部门应加强惠农政策支持力度,积极引导蔬菜产业转变生产发展方式,努力打造上海蔬菜产业升级版,努力保障上海地区蔬菜供给安全,促进上海都市型蔬菜产业的健康可持续发展。

With the change of the social economic development and residents living habits, the diversifie demands of vegetable put forward a new requirement to the vegetable industry, but the security of the vegetable supply gradually become the important factor that affect food security and social economic development. The experience of Shanghai urban vegetable industry development is very enlightening in both social and economic area. Based on the data of vegetable yield from 2000 to 2012 in Shanghai, this paper used the GM （1, 1） model to forecast and analyze the Shanghai vegetable yield data between 2013 and 2017. The precision verification of the prediction model showed that the precision of predictive model was good. Model prediction showed that Shanghai vegetable production volume in 2013-2017 had a trend of declining. The relevant government departments should strengthen the corresponding policy support, lead vegetable industry to transform the mode of production development actively, try hard to build the upgrade of Shanghai vegetable industry and endeavor to ensure the security of vegetable supply in Shanghai, promote the healthy and sustainable development of Shanghai urban vegetable industry.