基于CI指数石河子农垦区干湿变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Drought-wet Condition in Shihezi Agricultural Reclamation Area Based on CI

为了探究气候变化下石河子农垦区干湿演变特征,基于石河子农垦区1954—2012年的逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水、日照时数、风速等资料,运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法和小波分析法探究了石河子农垦区CI指数的年际、季节、年代和月变化特征。结果表明:(1)石河子地区年均CI指数和四季(春夏秋冬)CI指数都呈增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.08/10 a、0.05/10 a、0.08/10 a、0.09/10 a和0.11/10 a;20世纪60—70年代研究区域干旱频发,80年代—2012年干旱发生次数相对较少;(2)春季和夏季的CI指数无明显突变,秋季、冬季和年均的CI指数发生了突变;四季的CI指数都有明显的周期性,但年均CI指数无明显的周期性。

In order to study variation of drought-wet condition in Shihezi Region, and based on daily precipitation, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed data of 5 stations in Shihezi Region from 1954 to 2012, the change trend, the abrupt characteristic and the period of inter-annual, decadal, seasonal and monthly CI were characterized by using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis method. The results were as follow： （1） the decadal and inter-annual Clof Shihezi Region presented increasing trend, with the rate of 0.08/10 a, 0.05/10 a,0.08/10 a, 0.09/10 a and 0.11/ 10 a, respectively. The frequency of drought events during the 60s and 70s were more than the period from 80s to 2012. （2） The inter-annual Clof autumn, winter had abrupt change, whereas in spring and summer, it had no abrupt change. The significant period exited in the CI of four seasons, but not happened in the inter-annual CI.