丽水市夏季高温干旱的气候变化特征和相关分析

The Analysis of Climate Variation and Correlation of Summer Heat Arid in Lishui

利用1953—2013年丽水市国家气象观测站夏季(6—8月)逐日气温、降水观测资料,根据高温、干旱划分标准,统计丽水高温干旱的发生发展情况,并采用多尺度趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和相关分析等方法从年、月角度分析夏季高温干旱的气候变化特征、突变转折情况,以及两者的相关性。结果表明:夏季高温日数和高温强度成正比关系,即高温持续时间越长,气温越高,且以21世纪初的高温最为明显,其中7月是高温最显著的月份。夏季干旱主要以轻、中旱为主,且在20世纪60—90年代初干旱最为突出,其中6月干旱发生概率最低,7月干旱强度最大,8月干旱概率最高。高温和降水都在2003年左右发生突变,且两者呈显著负相关,其中在7月两者对夏季高温干旱的影响最大。

Based on the meteorological observation data such as daily temperature, precipitation and so on from Lishui meteorological stations in summer （from July to August） during 1953 to 2013, according to the classification of high temperature and drought, the high temperature drought was added up, and the methods such as multi-scale analysis, Mann-Kendall test and correlation and so on were used to analyze the climatic trends, mutation and correlation of summer heat drought. The results showed that： summer high temperature was proportional to high temperature strength, the longer the high temperature last, the higher the temperature accordingly. High temperature was most obviously in the early 21^st century （July was the most significant）. Summer drought was mainly composed of light and middle drought, and was most obviously in 60s to 90s. It showed drought had the lowest probability of occurrence in June, the maximum intensity in July and the highest the two probability of occurrence in August. Temperature and precipitation were mutated in about 2003, and displayed a significant negative correlation and had the most impact on high temperature drought in July.