政治风险对我国企业对外直接投资的影响研究

Study on Impacts of Political Risk on Outward Foreign Direct Investment of Chinese Enterprises

本文采用动态面板数据模型,选取2003~2012年期间我国企业进行对外直接投资的21个主要国家为样本,研究了政治风险对我国企业对外直接投资的影响。通过研究得出：东道国总体政治风险水平越高,则我国企业对其进行的对外直接投资量越小;在衡量政治风险的12个指标中,社会经济状况、投资环境、国内冲突、外部冲突、腐败、军方对政治的影响、制度质量对我国企业对外直接投资有显著的负面影响。政府稳定性、国内冲突、宗教冲突、法律和秩序、种族冲突、民主的稳健性的影响不显著。在此基础上,提出我国企业应通过建立风险预警管理机制、经营本土化等措施,来减少和规避政治风险对我国企业对外直接投资的负面影响。

In this paper, the authors use dynamic panel data model to make a study on impacts of political risk on outward foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises. 21 main host countries of outward foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises are chosen during 2003 to 2012 as our sample. It is concluded that the amount of outward foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises will reduce, when political risk of the host country increases. Among the 12 indicators of political risk, socio-economic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, influence of the military on politics, and quality of bureaucracy have significant negative effects on outward foreign direct investment of Chinese Enterprises . However, effects of government stability, internal conflict, religious tensions, law and order, tensions among ethnic groups, democratic accountability of the government are relatively less significant. Therefore, our study proposes that in order to avoid political risk, enterprises should strengthen construction of risk warning system, make their management more localized and try to get the government ＇s support.