对昭通6.5级地震的事前预测和事后分析

Prediction and post-analysis of Zhaotong M6.5 earthquake

依据卫星热异常和仪器观测数据异常,于2013年11月做出东经102°～104°,北纬25°～27°附近将发生6～7级地震,时间在3个月内的预测.2014年4月根据卫星热异常和云异常,继续确认了震级和地点,但是对地震的时间预测上不好把握.2014年8月3日昭通市鲁甸县发生6.5级地震,证实我们预测的震级和地点准确,时间在上年度正确,短期月份错误.通过分析地震日期,发现鲁甸地震和汶川地震有一定的相似性.

According to satellite thermal anomaly and instrument data anomaly, we make a prediction in Novem- ber 2013 that there will be a M6 -7 earthquake in the area around longitude 102° -104°, latitude 25° ~ 27° in 3 months. According to the satellite thermal anomaly and cloud anomaly, we verify this prediction again in April 2014, while the quake time is difficult to estimate. On 2014 August 3 a M6.5 earthquake hit Zhaotong area. This quake shows that our prediction about location and magnitude is good, in terms of the time, the yearly pre- diction is right, while the short term prediction is wrong. Through the analysis about the quake date, we find that there exists similarity between Wenchuan earthquake and Zhaotong earthquake.