中国的人口新常态与经济新常态

China's New Normal in Population and Economy

进入本世纪10年代以来,我国的经济和人口双双进入了"新常态"。这两个新常态将对我国社会经济发展产生深刻和深远的影响,同时也决定了我国经济发展的道路、模式和步伐。人口变量不仅是影响消费市场的决定因素,作为经济增长的内生性因素还会从供给和需求两个方面影响各个要素市场,进而影响整个经济的供给与需求的长期均衡。因此,人口新常态不仅是我国经济新常态形成的决定因素之一,同时也是新常态下经济运行的基础性条件。文章在明确我国人口新常态的性质及其5个基本特征的基础上,从新常态下的人口与经济关系结构入手,分析人口新常态对新常态经济影响的具体路径,探讨人口新常态各种可能的经济后果及应对策略。

China＇s population and economy have simultaneously come to a ＂new normal＂ in the 2010s,which would bring about profound and far-reaching impacts on China＇s development by determining the path, pattern and pace of economic development. Demographic dynamics are not only the major determinant of consumer market, but also influence, as endogenous factors in economic growth, the demand and supply of production elements market, and finally determine the economic long-term equilibrium of demand and supply. Thus,the demographic new normal is both a maior determinant and a basic condition of the economic performance under the new normal. This paper identifies the characteristics of the new normal population and analyzes the paths through which the population new normal influeces the economic new normal, and discusses the potential economic consequences of the new normal population and their policy implications.