基于行业差异的欧盟旅游与经济增长关系研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in EU Countries—from the Perspective of Tourism Related Industries

作为旅游经济领域内的热点问题,旅游发展和经济增长间的关系在学界一直未能形成较为统一的结论。鉴于将旅游业作为单一行业来研究其和整体经济间关系可能是分歧产生的重要原因,本文使用异质面板协整技术实证检验了欧盟4个核心旅游行业与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明,欧盟各旅游行业与经济增长之间均存在长期协整关系;进一步格兰杰检验的结果揭示了欧盟航空、住宿和旅行社等3个核心旅游行业与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,但影响程度各异。住宿业与航空、旅行社和餐饮业间表现为显著的双向促进发展关系。

Tais paper applies the heterogeneous panel conintegration technique to investigate the causal relationship between the development of tourism related industries and the economic growth of EU countries. A conintegrated relationship between the development of the 4 tourism related industries and the economic growth is found to be substantial. It also reveals the causality hierarchy among the tourism related industries, and the accommodation industry is considered to be the leading industry which can exert great influences on all other tourism related industries. These empirical findings have great policy implications.