数量化理论在泥石流易发性预测中的应用

Prediction of debris flow occurrence based on the quantification theory

泥石流易发性是泥石流研究中的重点与难点,泥石流易发性的确定对于泥石流整体特征的把握具有十分重要的作用。在总结现行标准和前人研究不足的基础上,从发生学角度选取流域面积、纵坡降、谷坡坡度等9个评价指标,采用数量化理论Ⅰ建立了泥石流易发性预测模型。通过模型自检和应用验证结果表明,模型准确率分别达到87.14%和90%,证明了该方法在泥石流易发性评价中的合理性与有效性。

It is difficult but important to analyze the degree of debris flows-prone, which plays an important role in the grasp of overall characteristics of the debris flow. On the basis of the inadequacy of current standards and previous studies, quantification theory Ⅰ method is applied to generate a debris flow-prone prediction model, and 9 assessment factors from the embryology angle, such as the basin area, river gradient, hillside slope, are used for debris flow-prone assessment. According to the results of the self-test and applied method, model accurately rate reaches 87. 14% and 90% . It is proved that this method is able to be applied for debris flow-prone assessment.