喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地动物鼠疫预测初步研究

Preliminary study for the animal plague in Himalayan Marmota focus in China

目的预测喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地未来两年的动物鼠疫检菌阳性率。方法对历史数据采用加权平滑法进行预测。结果收集1959年以后的喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地动物鼠疫检菌数及检菌阳性数,对阳性检出率进行预测,2014~2015年检菌阳性率的加权平滑值分别为11.35%,11.62%。结论未来两年喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地动物鼠疫疫情有升高的趋势,应加强防控。

Objective To predict bacteria positive rate in the next two years for the animal plague in Himalayan Marmota focus of plague. Methods Using the weighted smoothing method to analyze the historical data for prediction. Results Data of detected bacteria positive rate after 1959 in Himalayan Marmota focus of plague was collected. The value got from weighted smoothing method from 2014 to 2015 is 11.35% and 11.62% respectively. Conclusion Epidemic situation has rising trend for the next two years in Himalayan Marmota focus which should be strengthened for the prevention and control work.