2013年菏泽市手足口病重症病例发病危险因素Logistic分析

Subject Logistic study on Risk Factors Associated with Severe Cases of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD)in Heze,2013

目的掌握菏泽市手足口病重症病例发病危险因素,探索早期识别重症病例的参考指标,加强预测,降低重症病例发生的风险。方法选取16名手足口病重症病例及32名普通病例进行1:2的病例对照研究。由菏泽市疾病预防控制中心开展对患儿咽拭子、粪便标本及疱疹液的病原学检测。对年龄、首次就诊医院类型、发热、精神差和EV71感染这5个危险性因素进行单因素分析,然后再对入选的因素进行多因素logistic分析。结果首诊去私人医院和临床表现精神差的P值<0.05,入选进入多因素分析,发生重症病例的风险均为对照组的7.978倍。结论首诊去私人诊所和临床表现精神差是手足口病重症的危险因素,可作为早期识别重症病例的参考指标。

Objective To recognize the risk factors of Severe Case of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease （HFMD） in Heze, and to seek out clues for targeted interventions to prevent the occurrence of severe case. Methods A total of 16 severe cases and 32 mild cases of HFMD were enrolled according to the ratio of 1：2 in this matched case-control study. And Specimens of throat swabs, anal swabs and herpes fluids were collected to detect nucleic acid of erterovirus by Heze center for disease control and prevention. Five factors including age, the type of the first hospital, fever, poor mental and EV71 infection were analyzed by chi-square test and multivariate logistic test. Results The risk of developing severe cases of HFMD was associated with going to the private clinic and lethargy, with P〈0.05. The risk of developing severe cases with going to the private clinic and lethargy were both 7.978 times of mild cases. Conclusion It was concluded that going to the private clinic and lethargy could be used as the reference index to identify severe cases.