粮食补贴政策对粮食产量的影响——基于改进的灰色关联度分析

Impact of Grain Subsidy Policy to Grain Production:Based on Modified Grey Relation Analysis

为对比分析不同粮食补贴政策对粮食产量影响的作用,本文基于改进的灰色关联度(T型关联度)分析得出如下结论:粮食直接补贴、良种补贴、农机购置补贴以及农资综合补贴政策与粮食产量之间均存在正相关关系,即该四项粮食补贴政策能够有效促进粮食产量的增加。其中良种补贴与粮食产量的关联度最强,其余依次为农机购置补贴、农资综合补贴、粮食直接补贴。粮食直接补贴政策的作用效果最差,与粮食产量的关联度仅为0.0049。为充分发挥我国粮食补贴政策的作用效果、实现补贴资金效益最大化,首先,在不违背WTO关于农业补贴规定的限度内,继续加大对农业的扶持力度;其次,粮食补贴资金应有重点地向与粮食产量关联度高的补贴政策倾斜,并积极探索新型农业补贴政策,不断完善我国粮食补贴政策体系。

This paper analyzed the effects of different grain subsidy policy based on the modified grey relation analysis （T＇s correlation degree）. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the grain subsidy policy and grain production, that is to say, the four grain subsidy policies could promote the grain production effectively. And the degree of the association between the improved varieties subsidy and grain production was the strongest, and others were purchase allowance policy, the comprehensive agricultural subsidies and food direct subsidy according to their ranks. The effect of food direct subsidy was the worst and the degree of the association was just 0.0049. In order to maximizie the effect of grain subsidy policy, firstly, more supports should be given within the rules of the agricultural subsidies of WTO. Secondly, the fund of the grain subsidy should be tilted to the policy that the degree of the association was higher. Also, new agricultural subsidy policy should be explored actively to perfect the system of the grain subsidy policy.