丝绸之路经济带物流业效率及其影响因素

Empirical Study on the Logistics Efficiency of the Silk Road Economic Belt and Its Influencing Factors

物流业发展对丝绸之路经济带建设具有十分重要的意义,而效率是物流业发展的主要方面。近年来,我国物流业发展很快,但由于起步晚,与发达国家和地区相比仍然存在较大差距,尚未走出高成本、低效率的状态,提高物流业效率已经成为当务之急。以2004-2012年面板数据为基础,实证分析我国丝绸之路经济带物流业效率及其影响因素发现,丝绸之路经济带物流业全要素生产率受技术进步的影响呈波动趋势,年均下降2.1%,主要源于技术进步与规模效率的下降;各地区物流业全要素生产率均值为0.979,地区技术进步效率不高,其中宁夏物流业效率最高,云南物流业效率降幅最大;物流业专业化程度与物流业资源利用率对丝绸之路经济带物流业效率具有显著的正向影响;城镇化水平与开放程度有助于提升丝绸之路经济带物流业效率,但统计上并不显著。这在一定程度上表明,当前经济实力、产业结构、人力资本水平三个因素对提升丝绸之路经济带物流业效率尚不存在积极影响。为更好地提升丝绸之路经济带物流业效率,应进一步促进物流业技术进步及其推广应用;进一步加强一体化规划,提高物流业规模效率与资源利用率;进一步培育物流业集群与龙头企业,提高物流业专业化程度;进一步改善物流业发展的"软环境",提升物流业效率。

The development of logistics industry is of great significance to establishing a Silk Road economic belt;and efficiency is the main factor of the development of logistics industry. In recent years,China＆#39;s logistics industry is developed quickly;but compared with other developed countries and regions,we still lagged behind. Improving logistic efficiency has become the urgent affairs. Based on methods of Malmquist productivity index,Tobit Model,and panel data from 2004 to 2012, an empirical analysis is made on the logistics efficiency and its influencing factors in the Silk Road economic belt during that period of time. The results show that：affected by technology advancement,the total factor productivity of logistics in the Silk Road economic belt is fluctuant. It decreases by an average of 2.1%annually,which mainly comes from the decline of technology advancement and scale efficiency. For regions in the Silk Road economic belt,the average total factor productivity of logistics is 0.979,and the efficiency of regional technology advancement is not high. The logistics efficiency in Ningxia is the highest,and the logistics efficiency in Yunnan suffers the biggest drop. The positive impacts of degree of specialization and logistics resource utilization on the logistics efficiency in the Silk Road economic belt are significantly. While the negative impact of the level of human capital on logistics efficiency isn＆#39;t statistically significant. To better promote the efficiency of logistics industry of Silk Road economic belt,we should,first,further promote the technology advancement of logistics industry and the popularization and application of that;second,we should strengthen the plan of integration and improve the scale efficiency and level of resources utilization of logistics industry;third,we should cultivate more clusters and leading enterprises of this industry and improve the level of specification;and fourth,we should improve the＆quot;soft environment＆quot;of logistic development and improve the efficiency of logistics industry.