中国地级以上城市人口流动空间模式变化——基于2000和2010年人口普查数据的分析

Spatial Pattern Changes of China's Internal Migration to Prefectural and Higher Level Cities:Evidence from the 2000 and 2010 Population Census Data

文章基于2000和2010年人口普查资料,对中国流动人口在地级市层面的空间分布格局与演化进行探讨。研究结果显示,人口流动的主要方向仍然是从中西部地区向东部沿海地区,长三角、珠三角、京津冀地区城市是跨省人口流动的主要吸引中心,吸引核心区逐渐由珠三角向北移动;从两次普查间人口流动分布的变化趋势看,绝大部分地级市的人口流动规模和强度有所增加,人口流动规模的空间分布态势基本不变,人口流动强度的空间分布则渐趋分散;跨省与省内流动人口相比,其分布较为集中,且大部分地级市仍以省内流动为主;人口流动强度与人口流动规模相比,受城市等级影响较小,空间分布较均匀,西北边疆(主要是新疆地区)城市人口流动规模较小而流动强度较大。

Based on the data of China's 2000 and 2010 population census,this paper examines spatial distribution and changes of China's migration to cities at the prefectural and higher levels.The results show that the main direction of migration is still from the westen and middle regions to the eastern coastal region.The cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,Yangtze River Delta Region and Pearl River Delta Region are the main attraction centres of inter-province migration while the core area of migration attraction is moving from Pearl River Delta Region to northward areas.The trend of the distribution of population migration during the 2000 to 2010 shows increases in migration sizes and intensities for the most cities.It also indicates that the spatial pattern of migration size remains stable,and the migration intensity distribution tends to be more dispersing.The spatial distribution of inter-province migration is more concentrated than that of intra-province migration,and intra-province migration is dominant in most cities.Compared with the migration size,the migration intensity distribution is more even and less influenced by the city hierarchy.The cities in northwest border areas(especially in the Xinjiang Province) show small migration sizes but strong intensity.