生产率视角下的中国粮食经济增长要素分析

Factor Analysis on China's Grain Economic Growth in Productivity Perspective

文章依据1978-2013年省级面板数据，对中国各省的粮食经济增长进行要素分析。结果发现，在粮食经济增长过程中，实物要素投入发挥着重要作用，人力资本和技术进步是主要动力，尤其是2000年以后，技术进步正逐步替代人力资本要素和实物要素的投入以实现粮食经济发展的有效性；人力资本累积值的差异是导致粮食经济增长累积值差异的重要因素。中国粮食生产过程中的人力资本水平不高，制约粮食经济增长；中国粮食主产区、主销区和平衡区的粮食全要素生产率差异较大。因此，文章建议改变以资本替代劳动的粮食生产模式，推动粮食生产过程中的技术进步，提高人力资本和农业劳动生产率。

According to panel data from 1978 to 2013,this paper provides factor analysis on each provincial grain economic growth.It finds out that in the process of grain economic growth,tangible input factor becomes elementary,but human capital and technological progress are the main power to promote the growth of China's grain economy,especially after 2000.The technological progress gradually replaces tangible input and human capital in realizing the effectiveness of the economic development of grain.The difference in human capital accumulative values is an important reason for the difference of grain economic growth accumulative values.China's low human capital factor in grain production process has been a bottleneck of grain economic growth.The differences in total factor productivity of grain are the relatively high among major producing areas,sales areas and balance areas.Therefore,the paper suggests that China should change the traditional development mode of substituting labour for capital,promote the technical progress and develop the human capital and productivity.