人均碳排放拐点的国际比较分析

International Comparative Analysis of Inflection Point of Per capita Carbon Emissions

经过对世界各国的梳理，本文筛选出28个有越过拐点迹象的国家或地区，借助图示、描述性统计、计量回归方法展开分析。本文判断认为，世界平均的人均碳排放拐点在2．8—3吨之间；届时，人均GDP介于2．3万-2．5万美元（2005年价），第二产业比重为25％-30％。从近年的相关指标来看，中国短期内还难以越过CKC拐点。

Observing other＇s per capita carbon emissions inflection point, can provide a reference for judging the carbon reduction situ- ation of China. After combing the countries or regions all over the world, we selected 28 signs over the inflection point of countries or regions, with the help of graphic analysis, descriptive statistics and econometric regression method. This article argues that, the world＇s average per capita carbon emissions inflection point is between 2. 8 tons and 3 tons; by then, GDP per capita is between $ 23000 and $ 25000 （in the 2005 price）, the proportion of secondary industry is from 25% to 30%. From the relevant measures in recent years, China is difficult to cross the CKC inflection point in the short term.