基于跨时现值模型的耐用品消费与中国经常项目差额波动研究

A Study on the Durables Consumption and Fluctuations of China's Current Account based on Intertemporal Present Value Model

本文将经常项目的跨时现值模型进行扩展,把居民的耐用品消费包含进模型,并利用中国1982至2012年的时间序列数据对模型进行实证检验,结果表明包含耐用品的扩展模型对经常项目差额的预测能力有了提升,模型功效得到了改善,耐用品消费成为中国经常项目波动的重要影响因素。因此,增加居民的耐用品消费,促使居民消费结构升级,是拉动内需、调节国际收支的有效途径。

This paper extends the intertemporal present value model, integrates the residents＇ durables consumption, and uses times series data of China from 1982 to 2012 to conduct empirical test. The test results show that the extended model which includes durables has improved the predictive ability to current account balance, the model＇s efficacy is improved, the durables consumption becomes an important factor influencing the China＇s current account fluctuations. Therefore, increasing residents＇ durables consumption to prompt consumption structure upgrading is an effective way to promote the development of economy and adjust the balance of payments.