最低工资对农民工的就业影响及其传导机制研究

Employment Effects and Transmission Mechanism of the Minimum Wage over the Migrant Workers

本文利用我国东部地区1995-2012年的省级面板数据,就最低工资对农民工就业的影响及其传导机制进行研究,结果显示:上调最低工资会对东部地区农民工的就业产生负面影响,且当期影响大于滞后影响;最低工资的就业负效应在短期主要是以提升劳动生产率的中介效应形式体现,在长期主要是通过缩减员工规模或企业退出市场等直接效应形式表现。考虑到目前最低工资的相对水平仍然偏低、最低工资的上调有利于促进企业提升劳动生产率以及推动产业转型升级、帮助企业摆脱"技工荒"困境等现实原因,东部地区不应暂停对最低工资的调整。

Using the provincial panel data of the eastern regions from 1995 to 2012, this paper studies the effects of the minimum wage on the migrant workers＇ employment and transmission mechanism. The results show that the increase of the minimum wage in the eastern regions will have a negative impact on the employment of migrant workers, and current influence is greater than the lag influence; in the short term, the negative effects of the minimum wage on the employment, mainly embody in the form of intermediary effect of improving labor productivity, while in the long run, mainly show in the form of direct effect by reducing staff size or exiting the market. Given the realistic reasons, such as the relative low minimum wage level, the minimum wage increase is conducive to encourage enterprises to improve labor productivity and promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and help enterprises get rid of the predicament of ＂skilled worker shortage＂, the eastern regions should not pause the adjustment of the minimum wage.