我国地方政府性债务风险评估及预警研究

Studyon the Risk Assessment and Early Warning of China's Local Government Debt

根据2014年披露的各省市债务审计报告,采用因子分析法对我国30个省市的地方政府性债务风险进行综合评估及预警。整体而言我国地方政府债务风险可控,但贵州等四个处于高风险预警区间的省市,对其政府性债务风险应保持高度关注与警惕。要化解地方政府债务风险,各省市应建立完善的预算管理及债务信息披露体系,并严格落实地方政府债务责任追究制度。

According to these debt audit reports disclosed in 2014 from various provinces and cities, by using the factor analysis method for 30 provinces and cities of China＇s local government debt risk comprehensive assessment and early warning, the results show that： the overall debt of local government of our country risk is controllable, but Guizhou and the other three provinces are in high risk early warning zone, should be to main- tain a high degree of concern and vigilance for the government debt risk. To resolve the debt risk of local government, various provinces and cities should establish the system of budget management and debt information disclosure, and strictly implement the responsibility system of local government debt.