东盟五国外国直接投资与制成品出口贸易相互关系分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between ASEAN-5's FDI and Export Trade

文中对东盟五国FDI流入和制成品出口之间相互关系进行实证研究。结果表明:除泰国外,东盟四国FDI流入和制成品出口贸易存在长期稳定的均衡关系。新加坡和马来西亚出口贸易拉动FDI流入,属于出口导向型投资;泰国FDI增长对出口贸易有促进作用,是投资推动型出口。东盟五国FDI与制成品出口贸易相互冲击存在明显的区域差异。

ASEAN-5 is the most important countries of manufacturing＇s production and export. It is also one of the most popular destinations for FDI-in-flow among developing countries. The methods used are the Johansen cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and IRF, which are based on the VAR model. The paper investigates the integration of the amount of FDI-in-flow and export in ASEAN-5. The empirical results show that there exists the long-run relationship between the FDI-in-flow and export of ASEAN-4 except for Thailand. The exports of Singapore and Malaysia stimulate FDI -in-flow which belongs to export-oriented investment; while Thailand＇s FDI gives an impetus to the export trade which belongs to investment-driven export. The mutual impact of FDI-in-flow and manufacturing goods export has obvious region differences in ASEAN-5.