基于协同理论的模糊多因素消防安全决策模型

Fuzzy multi-factor decision-making model for fire safety based on synergistic theory

为了选择降低火灾风险的消防安全隐患治理方案,针对消防安全决策具有多因素制约的特征,结合协同理论和模糊数学方法,构建了消防安全隐患治理方案的多因素决策模型。通过确定消防安全隐患治理方案的评选因素及各评选因素的权重,采用消防安全隐患治理方案决策模型获得最优的消防安全隐患治理方案。以苏州市古城区为研究对象,提出了三种消防安全隐患治理方案,采用构建的决策模型进行消防安全决策。结果表明:该决策模型能够反映消防安全隐患治理方案的效果、投资和工期。采用该决策模型优选获得的消防安全隐患治理方案符合古城区区域火灾风险实际,验证了其实用性。

To choose a fire safety hidden trouble control scheme to reduce fire risks, a decision-making model for fire safety hidden trouble control schemes is established here according to the char-acteristics of fire safety decision-making of multi-factor constraint and based on synergistic theory and fuzzy mathematics. By choosing reasonable evaluation factors and confirming the factors’ weights,an optimal fire safety hidden trouble control scheme can be obtained by using the fire safety hidden trouble control scheme decision-making model. The Old Town district of Suzhou city is taken as an object. Three fire safety hidden trouble control schemes are proposed,and fire safety decision is made by the decision-making model. The results show that,the decision-making model can reveal not only the safety performances but also the investments and time limits of the fire safety hidden trouble control schemes. The fire safety hidden trouble control scheme selected by the decision-making model proposed here can meet the actual fire risk of the Old Town district,and its practicability is verified.