基于可导性方差分解的居民收入省际差距分析

Analysis of Inter-Provincial Disparity of Income Based on the DifFerentiable Variance Decomposition

本文提出了一个基于收入构成差异和收入差距动因的分解框架,旨在量化相关决定因素对居民人均收入省际差距的贡献度.从指标内在关联性维度将居民人均收入指标进行多指标分解,由此导出因变量指标与各自变量之和(或之乘积)之间存在恒等关系的表达式,并引入可导性方差分解法构造了地区间居民收入绝对差距和相对差距的结构与动因分解模型.研究结果表明,驱动2005-2012年中国居民人均收入省际间差距形成和缩小的首要动力是人均设备性资本,其次是非设备性资本与设备性资本比例;人力资本与总人口比例在差距形成和绝对差距缩小中具有显著的推动作用,但在相对差距缩小中表现出明显的抑制效应;非设备性资本产出率在差距形成中具有较大的推动作用,但在差距缩小中表现出巨大的抑制效应;劳动力与人力资本比例在差距形成和绝对差距缩小中具有显著的抑制作用,但在相对差距缩小中表现出巨大的推动作用;产出分配率在差距形成中发挥了较小的抑制作用,但在差距缩小中表现出巨大的遏制作用.

This paper presents a decomposition framework based on the difference income compo- sition and the dynamics of income gap, aiming at quantifying the contribution of relevant determi- nants to gap of per capita income between provinces. From the dimension of intrinsic correlation of index, it conducts multi-index decomposition of residents＇ per capita income, and exports the expression of identical relationship between sums （or the products） of the dependent variable and every independent indicators. Afterwards, it introduces to the method of differentiable variance decomposition to construct the structure and motivation decomposition model of absolute and rel- ative income gaps between regions. It indicates that the primary driving force of the formation and narrowing of interprovincial gap of Chinese residents＇ per capita income from 2005 to 2012 is per capita equipment capital, followed by proportions of non-equipment capital and equipment capital. Human capital and total population ratio have a significant role in the formation of gap and nar- rowing of absolute gap, but exhibit significant inhibitory effect in the narrowing of absolute gap. Labor force and human capital ratio exhibit significant inhibitory effect in the formation of gap and narrowing of absolute gap, but have a significant role in the narrowing of relative gap. Distribution rate of output exhibits insignificant inhibitory effect in the formation of gap, but exhibits significant inhibitory effect in the narrowing of gap.