传统贸易收支汇率理论的回顾与评析——简论美国贸易赤字产生的原因

Review and Evaluation of the Traditional Theory of Trade Balance and Exchange Rate and the Causes of the U.S. Trade Deficit

鉴于我国遭受美国等国家要求人民币汇率升值的压力,通过对贸易收支的弹性理论进行回顾与评述,指出用汇率工具分析贸易收支存在着缺陷,汇率升值不是贸易逆差产生的主要原因;运用多因素结构方法,分析了美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率变动的相关问题;最后简要提出了改善我国贸易收支不平衡的一些战略措施。

In view of the pressure arising from the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate demanded by the U.S. and other countries, this paper points out the drawbacks in the of analysis of trade balance by the exchange rate tools, and finds out that exchange rate is not the main cause of trade deficit. Bu using the multi-factor structure, this paper analyzes the related factors of the U.S. trade deficit and changes of the RMB exchange rate, stressing that the U.S. overestimates the trade deficit with China. Finally, it briefly discusses some strategic measures for improving the China＇s trade imbalance.