中国金融安全指数合成实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of China's Financial Security Index Synthesis

综合指数法具有简单、清晰、操作上灵活及时序上连续等特点。通过借鉴综合指数法合成金融安全指数,并通过指数的变化来综合评价中国金融安全状况,结果显示:特别考虑了表外业务、同业业务和影子银行等均可能引发流动性风险因素后,2005年1月-2014年3月,中国金融安全指数的走势呈现起伏波动态势。这一变化趋势与中国金融安全状况的历史变化走势大体吻合,说明合成的金融安全指数能基本反映中国金融安全的真实状况。

The composite index method has such features as simplicity, clearness, flexible opera- tion and continuous timing sequence. By employing the composite index method to synthesize finan- cial security index, this paper conducts a comprehensive assessment of China＇s financial security through the changes in the index. The results show that China＇s financial security index from January of 2005 to March of 2014 shows a fluctuating trend, when taking into special considerations of such factors, which would lead to liquidity risks, as the off-balance sheet business, the interbank business and the impact of subsidiaries. This trend generally coincides with the trend of historical changes in China＇s financial security situation, indicating that the synthetic financial security index can basically reflect the real situation of China＇s financial security.