基于新经济地理学的中国省际劳动力迁移机制研究

Mechanism of Inter-provincial Labor Migration in China Based on the New Economic Geography

改革开放以来,中国非农产业和迁移劳动力向东部沿海地区同向集中的态势持续强化。利用1982-2010年全国4次人口普查和3次人口抽样调查提供的劳动力就业和省际迁移数据,对省际劳动力迁移机制的实证分析验证了新经济地理学模型中前向联系的存在性,即市场进入性引导下的劳动力迁移是中国产业集聚累积循环过程的基本动力。研究结果表明,随着市场一体化和地区专业化水平的提高,市场进入性对劳动力迁移的影响度逐渐提升。不仅是迁入地工业品的可获得性,其周边地区工业品的供给规模对迁移决策的影响也日益提高,由此导致了中国工业和迁移劳动力在东部沿海地区的连片集中。因此,推进市场一体化和生产专业化,提高市场进入性,是促进产业地理集中和区域协调发展的基本战略措施。

Since the reform and opening, the co-agglomeration of nonagricultural industries and migrants to the eastern coastal area has been increasingly intensified in China's Mainland. Based on the data of Chinese inter-provincial migration between 1982 and 2010, the effects of market access on migration in new economic geography model are tested in this paper. The result shows that market access presented by market potential function had significant impacts on migration. It also shows that the influence of market access on Chinese inter-provincial migration had been increasing with market integration and regional specification. Not only the availabilities of industrial commodities in immigrant province,but also the supplies of industrial commodities from its neighboring provinces had increasingly significant impacts on migration decision, which resulted in the contiguous agglomera- tion of industries and migrants in eastern China. Thereafter, a basically strategic measure to promote industrial agglomeration and realize regional coordinate development is to increase market access by accelerating market integration and regional specialization.