中国对其他金砖国家出口增长因素研究--基于修正的CMS模型分析

Research on Growing Factors of Exports from China to Other BRIC Countries Based on Revised CMS Model

扩大对其他金砖国家出口可为中国提供良好的市场保障。文章基于2000-2013年UNComtrade相关数据，运用修正的恒定市场份额模型（CMS）针对中国对其他金砖国家出口增长因素进行研究。结果发现，市场需求引致效应和出口价格竞争效应始终是中国对其他金砖国家出口增长的主要因素，出口供给与进口需求错位导致出口结构效应较低．．印度和俄罗斯市场需求扩大促使市场需求引致效应对出口增长贡献持续增长：对巴西出口增长经历了一个由出口价格竞争效应向市场需求引致效应转变过程：对南非出口增长以出口价格竞争效应为主。文章最后提出相关政策建议，皆在为进一步扩大中国对其他金砖国家出口规模、提高出口质量提供参考。

Expanding exports to other BRIC countries can provide a good market guarantee for China. Based on 2000-2013 trade data, this paper emphatically decomposes the growth factors of exports by using the revised CMS model. It finds that market demand effect and export price competition effect are the main factors of China＇s exports to other BRIC countries, and the export structure effect caused by the dislocation between export supply and import demand is low. The market demand of India and Russia pulls export growth; the growth factor of exports from China to Brazil has undergone a process of transformation from export price competition to market demand; export price competition effect is the main factor for the growth of exports of China to South Africa. And finally, some relevant suggestions are put forward, so as to provide a reference for expanding the export scale and improving the quality of exports.