制度质量对中国对外贸易的促进效应--基于向量误差修正模型的考察

The Promoting Effect of Institutional Quality on China's Foreign Trade:An Analysis Based on VECM

文章构建了一个“中国化”的制度质量指标来测算中国1978～2012年制度质量，进而通过向量误差修正模型（VECM）分析了中国制度质量与对外贸易的长期均衡和短期动态关系。结果表明。制度质量在短期和长期对我国对外贸易的促进效应分别达到2．12％和2．26％。制度质量改善是促进我国外贸增长的重要内生渠道。文章还发现，我国对外贸易短期波动与长期均衡值偏差仅有23％能够自我修正，对外贸易短期动态调整机制的修正效果并不理想。由于二者长期均衡关系足够稳定．文章认为应当从制度质量改善与对我国对外贸易发展互动视角制定相关政策进行适当干预。

The paper builds a ＂Chinese＂ institutional quality indicator to estimate China＇s institutional quality in 1978~2012, and analyzes the long-run equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between institutional quality and export and import growth based on Vector Error Correction Model （VECM）. It finds that： whether short or long-term, institutional quality has a positive effect on import and export growth by up to 2.12% and 2.26%, and institutional quality is an important driving force of China＇s foreign trade growth. It also finds that short-term foreign trade fluctuation and long-run equilibrium value deviation can only be corrected by about 23%, and the effect of foreign trade short- term dynamic adjustment mechanism is not ideal, with only a small portion of short-term fluctuations being able to be self-adjusted. Because the long-term equilibrium relationship is stable enough, it suggests that the related policy should be adjusted from an interactive perspective of the promotion of institutional quality and the development of China＇s foreign trade.