河南省小麦产量气象影响因素的灰色关联分析

Grey Relational Analysis on the Wheat Yield by Meteorological Factors in Henan Province

为探明气象变化对河南省小麦气象产量的影响,利用1980—2012年河南省气象资料和小麦产量资料,对小麦气象产量和小麦生育期内的降水、气温和日照时数的变化规律进行分析,并将小麦气象产量与小麦越冬期和小麦生长期第二阶段的降雨、气温、日照时数进行灰色关联分析.结果表明,河南省小麦生长期内温度有波动上升的趋势;小麦生长期第二阶段的降雨量比越冬期间的降雨量平均多261 mm,但是年际间的变化规律不明确;小麦生育期第二阶段日照时数变化不明显,第一阶段有下降的趋势.小麦气象产量与气候变化有较大的关联性,温度和日照时数是影响小麦气象产量的决定性因素,近十年来,生长期第二阶段的降雨对小麦气象产量的影响变大.

In order to clarify the influences of meteorological factors on wheat meteorological yield in Henan,themeteorological data and material on wheat yield from 1980 to 2012 in Henan were used to analyse the discipline ofthe wheat meteorological yield,the temperature,the precipitation and the hours of sunshine,then the grey relationalanalysis between meteorological factors and wheat meteorological yield were carried out. The results showed that thetemperature gradually increase;the average precipitation of the second stage is 261 mm more than the first stage inthe wheat growth period,but the interannual change regulation is not clear;the change of the hours of sunshine isless obvious in the second stage,and there is a downward trend in the first stage. There is a great relevance between thewheat meteorological yield and the meteorological factors,moreover,the temperature and the hours of sunshine are thedecisive factors on wheat meteorological yield. In the recent 10 years,the precipitation in the second stage had a greaterimpact on wheat meteorological yield.