中国消费驱动的“推拉力”分析——兼论中国需求动力结构的转换

A Research on the “Push Power” and “Pull Power” of Consumption Driving in China

改革开放以来,中国走的是"投资和出口驱动"的发展模式,当前外围经济不良制约着"高增长",同时也提供了一个非常好的"转型"机遇。消费驱动意味着在"三驾马车"中消费对经济发展起着越来越强的作用,以培育起国内市场为主导的经济发展内生能力。笔者在剖析当前中国需求动力结构特征的基础上,研究了影响中国消费驱动的因素:增强消费驱动力的"推力"包括中央政策推动、WTO红利减少、人口红利枯竭和改革红利释放等;减弱消费驱动力的"拉力"包括地方的"投资饥渴症"、收入分配改革停滞、财政支出结构不合理和金融体制改革滞后等。基于上述分析,笔者进一步探讨了中国需求动力结构的未来走势,并指出相应的政策含义。

Since the reform and opening up, the mode of investment and export driving. Currently The external economy restricts the high growth in China but it also provides a very good opportunity for the transformation. Consumption driving means that consumption should obtain more rapid development, to develop the domestic market as the leading ability of endogenous economic development. Based on analyzing the economic demand power structure in China, this paper analy- zes the push power and pull power of consumption driving force. There are some factors to enhance consump- tion driving force, such as the central policy, WTO bonus decrease, the demographic bonus depletion and re- form bonus release. There are some factors to weaken consumption driving force, such as investment hunger of local government, the stagnation of income distribution reform; the unreasonable fiscal expenditure structure and the lag financial system reforms. Based on the above analysis, the paper further discusses the future trend of the economic demand power structure in China, and points out the corresponding policy meanings.