云南省2015年碳排放约束下的能源结构研究

The Study on Energy Structure of Yunnan Province in 2015 under the Carbon Emission Restriction

利用灰色系统预测模型,预测云南省2015年能源需求总量约为13813.53万吨标准煤,地区生产总值大概在15482.0979亿元;再利用云南有碳与无碳能源发展作为约束条件,以碳排放量最小化为目标函数建立L.P.模型,计算出2015年云南省大概排放256.76百万公吨二氧化碳,相当于1.66公吨二氧化碳/亿元地区生产总值,比2010年每亿元地区生产总值二氧化碳排放量为2.33公吨,降低28.76%,成功实现减排目标与能源结构优化。

This paper predicts that in 2015 the total energy consumption of Yunnan province is 138,135,300 tons of standard coal and the local GDP will reach 15,482.0979 billion Yuan by using gray system forecast model. L.P. model is made by objective function which can minimize carbon emissions under the restriction of carbon and carbonless energy of Yunnan province. This model estimates that there will be about 256.76 million metric tons, equal to 1.66 metric tons carbon per billion Yuan local GDP, which will decreased by 28.76% as against that of 2010, then realizes Energy-saving and Emission-reduction Targets and the optimization of energy structure.