中国通货膨胀预期的性质与形成机制

An Empirical Study on the Nature and Formation Mechanism of Chinese Inflation Expectations

运用最优改进C-P概率法测度中国的通胀预期,发现我国居民预期能够较好地利用部分通胀信息且具有一定的无偏性,性质类型应为有限的亚理性预期。中国通胀预期的形成机制受到实际通胀率惯性和预期通胀率自身变动的双重影响。从短期动态调整来看,居民具有信息"短记忆"的特点,即仅对滞后近几期的信息才有记忆和影响;从长期动态调整来看,预期通胀率和实际通胀率的标准差冲击,对二者的影响互为正向且持续长度、冲击作用力随时间推移而减弱,说明我国通胀率自身具有惯性与波动性,居民的通胀预期与实际通胀之间互为因果,并具有自我实现、逐步衰减的特征。

Using the optimal improved C-P probability method to measure Chinese inflation expectations, the paper shows that： China＇s population is expected to better use some inflation information and have certain unbiasedness, and the nature of the expectations should be sub-rational expectations. The formation mechanism of Chinese inflation expectations is influenced by both the actual rate of inflation inertia and the expected inflation rate of its changes. From the view of short-term dynamic adjustment, residents have the feature of information ＂short memory＂, namely, they only have memory and effect on the lag information of recent periods; from the view of long-term dynamic adjustment, the expected inflation rate and the standard deviation of actual inflation rate influence the two which are mutually positive and durable, and the impact force decreases with the lapse of time, indicating that China＇s inflation rate has its own inertia and volatility, there is a mutual causal relationship between residents＇ inflation expectation and actual inflation, which has the characteristics of self realization and gradual decline.