汇率调整对出口厂商行为的影响

The Effect of Exchange Rate Adjustment on Export Firms Behavior

本文通过构造一个海外市场局部均衡模型,考察了汇率政策对本国出口企业决策的影响。研究发现:当本币升值或厂商相对成本提高时,本国厂商的市场份额、加成率和利润将下降,市场需求弹性上升使得市场份额向更具成本优势厂商配置,成本劣势厂商加成率及利润下降,并在不同竞争设定下检验了相关结论的稳健性。考虑到厂商异质性及进入与退出,贬值仍是本国出口扩张的有效工具,它使得海外市场竞争环境更宽松并导致低效率厂商进入。在国际产业链分工情形下,汇率调整在影响本国劳动力就业的同时,还存在着跨国溢出效应。

This paper studies the reaction of exporting firms to exchange rate policy in a partial equilibrium framework with monopoly competition in the foreign market. We find that currency appreciation or relative cost increase leads to a decrease in market share, a decrease in mark-up rate and profit. When the demand substitutability increases, firms with cost advantage earn larger market shares, while mark-up rate and profit of the firms with cost disadvantage decreases. These results are robust to different competitive environment. Considering firm heterogeneity, entry and exit, devaluation is still an effective tool for the expansion of exports, allowing inefficient firms to easily enter into the foreign market. With respect to international industrial chain division, the exchange rate adjustment not only affects domestic employment but also spillovers to other countries.