中国宏观经济动态传导、可靠性及货币政策机制

China Macroeconomic System Dynamic Conduct,Conduct Reliabilities and the Dynamic Mechanisms of Monetary Policy

BVAR采用Bayesian方法对动态面板的VAR系统进行分析,本文紧密结合中国宏观经济系统运行特征,设计中国宏观经济系统动态传导机制的BVAR分析框架,实证分析中国宏观经济系统动态传导可靠性以及货币政策的动态影响机制。研究结果表明,本文BVAR分析框架能够较好地对中国宏观经济系统动态传导预测误差以及脉冲响应冲击误差进行分析,优于现有文献中传统的VAR分析方法,通过本文所设计的BVAR可以得到比传统VAR更加准确的有关中国宏观经济动态传导机制的分析结论。在具有优良动态传导可靠性分析基础上,本文进一步通过BVAR对中国货币政策动态影响机常制进行了实证分析,并与VAR所得结果进行对比分析,发现BVAR得到关于中国货币政策动态传导更加准确的研究结论。

BVAR uses Bayesian methods to analyse dynamic panel VAR system. The paper designs the BVAR framework of China macroeconomic system dynamic conduct mechanisms and analyses tightly combining China,s macroeconomic system features, and makes the empirical studies. The results show that the BVAR can make the better analyses on China＇s forecasting error and impulse response error than that of VAR. BVAR overcomes VAR in China macroeeonomic researches. Furthermore, The paper studies China＇s monetary policy dynamic mechanisms by comparing BVAR and VAR on the base of reliability researches, and finds the new conclusions.