中国碳市场免费配额发放政策的行业影响

Research on Free Quota Allocation Scheme's Influence on Major Industrial Sectors in China's Carbon Market

中国作为全球最大的二氧化碳排放国之一,正面临着日益严重的减排压力。为了实现"十二五"规划的减排目标,我国积极探索建立排放权交易体系市场机制实现碳减排的有效方法。截至目前,7个省市的试点碳市场工作均已启动。本文详细分析了碳市场机制中免费配额发放的范围和比例对主要工业部门的影响。以我国工业部门2010年的产值、增加值、利润总额、进口额、出口额和二氧化碳排放量数据为基础,分别测算了各工业行业的经济指标和贸易指标,对免费配额发放政策之于各工业行业的影响进行了量化分析。研究发现工业二氧化碳排放在行业层面存在明显的集聚现象,指标测算结果显示免费配额发放政策对有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业和橡胶制造业等13个部门有显著影响,而黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业和石油加工及炼焦业等传统高耗能、高排放部门则因贸易指标较低而未入选。基于本文的研究,建议全国碳市场须合理设置免费配额政策适用范围及免费配额比例调整路线图,并尽快在更细致的行业层面开展工业部门受碳市场影响程度的评估研究。

China, as one of the world＇ s largest CO2 emitter, is facing more urgent pressure to reduce its emissions. To achieve the energy intensity and carbon intensity targets explicitly highlighted in the 12th Five Year Plan, China is trying to gradually establish emissions trading system, exploring the application of market mechanism to implement energy conservation and emissions reduction efficiently. So far, we have already seen the opening of pilot carbon markets in two provinces and five cities. In this paper, the influence of application scope and ratio of free quota allocation scheme on major industrial sectors is analyzed. Based on total output value, value- added, import and export data for industrial sectors in 2010, we generate economic and trade indicators respectively and undertake the quantitative analysis of how free quota allocation scheme influence major sectors. Our study elucidates the existence of carbon emissions＇ agglomeration phenomenon at the level of sector. Comprehensive evaluation with above indicators indicates that competitiveness of chemical industry, nonferrous metal smelting, rubber and textiles manufacturing is strongly affected by free quota allocation scheme, while the influence on traditional sectors with high energy consumption and carbon emissions such as ferrous metal smelting and oil coking is relatively limited due to their low trade indicator. Based on our research, the design of application scope and ratio adjustment roadmap of free quotas is suggested during the establishment of nationwide carbon market in China, and it＇ s also important to come up with official guideline for assessing the influence of carbon market on industrial sectors at a more detailed division level.